Tuesday, November 27, 2007

Long Plays - update 2

Agrhhh, now come difficulties in judging what would I do.

Portfolio:
BIDZ
Since I decided to track close prices, BIDZ is sold for 17.70 (stop-loss). Interesting thing is that I was watching during the day and saw it going to 21.5 and 22 in the first 1/2 hour. Logical thing would be to sell over 22 because of the fast swing up. Would I do it? I hope yes. Lesson taken: "Watch the prices at least first trading hour." (Of course also last for buying at closing prices)

ARO - bought on 27/11 at 26.56. Reasons are that it closed above 26 with high volume. Also previous day higher low is good sign

DLB - bought 26/11 at 46.96; Very close to 47 and traded above that during day.


Update on Watchlist:
ANH - waiting for long white candel with volume to decide about further action
DIVX - waiting for 18.3
FSLR - still waiting for 220 break
KND - still waiting for above 25, although I had temptation to buy it because of increasing volume (of course imaginary trade)
ONXX - similar to KND but waiting for 56. Lesson: "They (experienced traders etc.) probably know why are they so often repeating not to fight with market but to wait what it will do and follow"
SRS
- seems it will not come down to levels where I would consider entering in. There is nice thing on the chart of SRS. See how the two days (11-Oct and 31-Oct) made a line which was support on 14-Nov. It is really amazing to saw this patterns again and again. Hopefully, I will be able to trade them profitably one day.
- Anothe observation is that 14-Nov and 23-Nov created another line of support that is much steeper. Since I can't imagin more steep support line I would say that once breaken the price will go down. (Let's see after a week or two if I was right)
MZZ - very the same comment as for SRS (Are they from the same sector? Uhh man, I think I should read something about ETFs )
TWM - brother of SRS and MZZ (I mean all are ETFs and act similarly)
SKF - upsa, upsa, another ETF; shoulda watch what I'm selecting for portfolio.
VCI - lets keep it for couple of more days on watchlist. Maybe there will be lesson in it when leaving this price level

Monday, November 26, 2007

Long Plays - update 1

Well, what would I do with the previosly selected list? In general, I would have approach not to buy anything based on 23-Nov data due to very light day.

ARO - closed above 26 as I wished. I would wait for 26-Nov if the price was in green at aroud 10:00 with average volume and buy. (If not gapped too high)
ANH - same as ARO. Waiting for 10:00 price
BIDZ - big step and big volume (considering limited trading hours) so I bought at close (19.94)
DIVX - waiting for 18.30
DLB - waiting for above 47
KND - waiting for above 25
ONXX - waiting for 56
SRS - waiting till where it will drop
MZZ - they say don't chase the price so waiting for it to come to me at around 58
TWM - nice drop. Waiting for finding support level

New entries for watchlist:
FSLR - waiting for 220 break with volume (as many others, I expect)
SKF - waiting for going lower
VCI - must close above 13.5

MoneyManagement rule I set is equal postions; 5,000 USD per position (imaginary 30,000)
My imaginary portfolio now consists of:
BIDZ at 19.94 (250 shr); initial stop-loss at 17.70; target price 22+ (I'll see on daily basis what is the dynamics of the price)

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Long Plays - ta

The idea is to select stocks which have stable slope up and have increased 20% - 30% during last 20 - 30 days with volume of min 400 a day. That means no big gaps up and no short-term runs that would create these 20%.

List these stocks and wait for them to retreat to sma(20). Than wait for day up to buy.

Easy rules so lets see what portfolio I can create from these.

As of 22-Nov I have picked following stocks with remarks:

ARO - waiting for green day and cross of $26
ANH - buying next day on green
BIDZ - waiting for retreat and touch of sma(20)
DIVX - well, this one gapped up but now I'm waiting to close above 18.3 with volume above 800k
DLB - this one should close above 47 and with volume to buy it
KND - waiting to close above $25 with 700k+ volume
ONXX - needs to close above $56 and volume close to 2mil
SRS - waiting to reatrea and touch of sma(20); once this happen I will see where to enter.
MZZ - waiting to reatrea and touch of sma(20); once this happen I will see where to enter.
TWM - waiting to reatrea and touch of sma(20); once this happen I will see where to enter.